Absorption
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Senior housing development

Senior housing demand, supply and the math to build

For developers and operators planning assisted living, memory care and skilled nursing. County and state demand from the Census, licensed supply from CMS and CDC, certificate of need rules, and a pro forma that runs a building from land to stabilization.

Run a development pro forma Demand and supply by state

Absorption is independent. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by or acting for HUD, FHA, CMS or any government agency.

Age 75+, July 2025
27.9M
Since April 2020
+23.4%
Projected 75+ in 2030
33.2M
Projected 85+ in 2035
11.2M
Nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+
223

Census Vintage 2025 estimates and 2023 National Population Projections; CMS certified nursing home beds, September 2026.

Fastest-growing 75+ populations

  1. Alaska: +41.5% since 2020
  2. South Carolina: +34.1% since 2020
  3. Idaho: +32.6% since 2020
  4. Colorado: +32.1% since 2020
  5. Nevada: +31.5% since 2020
  6. Arizona: +31.4% since 2020
  7. Georgia: +31.3% since 2020
  8. Hawaii: +31.3% since 2020

Fewest nursing beds per 1,000 aged 85+

  1. Arizona: 95.5
  2. Hawaii: 97.3
  3. Alaska: 99.4
  4. Oregon: 113.6
  5. Washington: 124.7
  6. Florida: 133.4
  7. Nevada: 135.0
  8. California: 142.0

Two numbers to start

Two public numbers start the screen for a senior housing site: how many older people live within reach of it, and how many licensed beds already serve them. The Census Bureau publishes the population by age for every county each year, and CMS lists every certified nursing home’s beds every month.

Absorption puts those side by side for each state and its counties, adds what CDC’s long-term care survey shows for assisted living, notes where a certificate of need stands in the way, and then runs the development math: budget, lease-up, the operating deficit a lender will want escrowed, and what a HUD 232 construction loan would cover.

HUD Section 232 construction loans by fiscal year

New construction and substantial rehabilitation endorsements on nursing homes, assisted living and board and care, from HUD's endorsement database (data run 07/08/2026).

Census puts private construction spending on "special care" buildings, the category that includes nursing homes, hospices and rest homes, at $4.4 billion in 2022, $3.9 billion in 2023, $4.6 billion in 2024, $5.8 billion in 2025. Census has no separate category for assisted living.

Guides

Questions people ask

How fast is the 75+ population growing?

The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates count 27.9 million Americans aged 75 and older in July 2025, up 23.4% from April 2020. Its 2023 projections put the 75+ population at 33.2 million in 2030 and the 85+ population at 11.2 million in 2035.

Where does the supply data come from?

Nursing home beds are CMS's certified beds for every Medicare or Medicaid nursing home. Assisted living beds are from CDC's National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study, whose latest state-level figures are for 2020. No federal source counts assisted living beds by county.

Is Absorption a market study?

No. It shows public demand and supply ratios to narrow where to look. A lender or HUD will require a third-party market study for the specific site.